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| Fri, 10th Jul 2020 12:26:00 |
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Farmers' climate change conundrum: Low yields or revenue instability |
Climate change will leave some farmers with a difficult conundrum, according to a new study by researchers from Cornell University and Washington State University: Either risk more revenue volatility, or live with a more predictable decrease in crop yields.
As water shortages and higher temperatures drive down crop yields in regions that depend heavily on seasonal snow, the choice to use more drought-tolerant crop varieties comes at a cost, according to model projections detailed in the paper "Water Rights Shape Crop Yield and Revenue Volatility Tradeoff for Adaptation in Snow Dependent Systems," published June 10 in Nature Communications.
The study examined the Yakima River Basin in Washington, where a complex combination of snow, reservoirs and water rights controls the availability of irrigation water. That water dictates the success of some of the U.S.' largest producers of wheat, corn, potatoes, pears, cherries, grapes, apples and hops.
The research team sought to quantify climate change's direct and indirect effects on irrigated agriculture in the basin and if if drought-resistant crop varieties could help recover productivity during times of drought.
The team found that higher water stress and temperatures led to lower crop yield, as anticipated, said Keyvan Malek, a postdoctoral researcher in Reed's group and lead author of the study.
"However, the models show that year-to-year variability in expected crop yields goes down because the difference between the best and worst case yields is reduced," said Malek. "While this is not a positive result, year-to-year fluctuations in crop yield revenue are strongly important in how crop insurance programs balance revenue fluctuations."
The researchers argue that the best outcomes for crop yield and revenue volatility must be through a simultaneous improvement in crop varieties—for example, by preserving agrobiodiversity—and in water systems, such as through improvements in water-governing institutions and infrastructure.
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