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| Mon, 6th Apr 2020 15:06:00 |
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New Zealand may reach 6 GW of solar by 2050 |
National utility Transpower said that solar could take a 9.3% share of the country's generation mix by the middle of the century. However, real growth is only forecast to occur from 2035, with distributed generation expected to account for more than 80% of total installed PV.
New Zealand could cover its electricity demand with a generation mix based exclusively on wind, solar, geothermal and hydropower by 2050, according to Transpower New Zealand, a state-owned enterprise responsible for electric power transmission.
The power provider said it may see the share of renewables grow from around 80% at present to 95% in 2035 and 100% by 2050.
Under their most likely scenario – the Accelerated Electrification base case – electricity demand is expected to raise from 42 TWh in 2020 to 70 TWh by 2050, due to population growth and the rising electrification of heat and transport. "It is important to note that while electricity demand is estimated to increase by 68%, peak demand only increases by 40%, reflecting the increasingly important role of demand response solutions," the company said.
This scenario, according to Transpower, envisions a generally positive global context, with growing political and social pressure to decarbonize. It also assumes that electrification will continue to be supported by the New Zealand government as a high priority way to decarbonize the economy, they said.
Under these conditions, the share of solar will grow from just 0.2% in 2020 to 0.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2030. After another five years, this percentage is predicted to reach 4.3% and in 2040 is expected to come in at 5.7%. In 2045 it should reach 7.6% and finally 9.3% in 2050.
By the middle of the century, remaining electricity demand will likely be 24.8% met by hydropower, 19.6% by wind, 12.5% by geothermal power, and 3.8% by other minor renewable energy sources.
Read original full article
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