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| Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 15:48:00 |
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Devastating Simulations Say Sea Ice Will Be Completely Gone in Arctic Summers by 2050 |
For millions of years, the Arctic has observed an unbroken ritual. In winter, Arctic sea ice expands, as sub-zero polar temperatures freeze waters in their place. In summer, the ice pack retreats, as warmer temperatures thaw the winter-made gains, surrendering them back to the ocean.
In the era of anthropogenic climate change, the ebb and flow of this timeless cycle has become disturbed. For decades, the overall coverage of Arctic sea ice has been in decline, expanding less and retreating more with each year. Nonetheless, the Arctic has, as always, remained frozen, covered in sea ice, even in the summer. It may not for much longer.
A new analysis of numerous climate models predicts the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free in the summer in only decades, and even before the mid-point of this century – a startling forecast that persists even in the best case scenarios, in which we manage to significantly cut down atmospheric CO2 emissions.
"If we reduce global emissions rapidly and substantially, and thus keep global warming below 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, Arctic sea ice will nevertheless likely disappear occasionally in summer even before 2050," says polar geophysicist Dirk Notz from the University of Hamburg in Germany.
"This really surprised us."
Read original full article
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