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| Sat, 29th Apr 2023 1:23:00 |
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As Liddell bites the dust, can NSW supply enough power for a looming El Niño summer peak? |
As coal-fired plants continuing their demise, the largest source of new power every year for the past five has been rooftop solar
AGL Energy’s Liddell coal-fired power station in New South Wales closed on Friday, Australia’s first big power plant closure since Hazelwood’s demise in Victoria in 2017.
Liddell had been operating at less than half its original 2,000-megawatt capacity for some time. Still, its exit sharpens the focus on the challenges facing not only NSW but also the rest of the national electricity market (Nem).
More closures to come
Origin Energy’s black coal-fired Eraring power station is scheduled to be the next to shut, with a planned August 2025 closure.
The plant, also in NSW, boasts almost 2,900MW of capacity, making it Australia’s largest. Relatively costly coal contracts, though, mean Eraring is not always raring to go.
Figure shows the reliability and indicative reliability forecasts, all regions, 2022-23 to 2031-32
Reliability and indicative reliability forecasts across all states are territories, 2022-23 to 2031-32. Photograph: Australian Energy Market Operator
NSW’s Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap, legislated by the state Coalition government in 2020, is intended to bridge the gap. It aims to attract at least 12 gigawatts of wind and solar farms and 2GW of long-duration storage by 2030.
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However, the NSW energy minister, Penny Sharpe, says “the roadmap has already been tested by the delays in Snowy [Hydro’s 2.0 pumped storage project] and the foreshadowed possible closure of Eraring”. Snowy 2.0 is scheduled to be ready by December 2027 but more than a few – including in NSW – expect more delays.
Officials say they expect to have sufficient new generation sources to fill the gaps left by Eraring. Early exits by any of the other plants, though, could stretch supplies.
“The government’s approach will be to keep the lights on by getting as much renewable energy into operation as soon as possible, accelerating the roadmap where possible and working with coal-fired operators on their transition to ensure there is enough generation for households and businesses,” Sharpe said.
Interstate competition
NSW relies on Queensland and Victoria for about 10% of its power. Both states, however, have recently accelerated their own renewables rush, particularly in Queensland, a laggard in the decarbonisation shift.
One NSW official said geographic spread should moderate the risks. “It’s really unusual in the [Nem] to have a peak demand event in multiple cities at the same time,” he said this week.
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