|
|
|
|
| Sat, 31st Dec 2022 10:38:00 |
|
The world in 2023: what our writers say you should watch out for |
Anear-inevitable global recession sparked by a lengthening war in Europe’s frozen east; an energy crisis coupled with soaring inflation; Covid-19 finally running rampant in China – predictions for 2023 are grim. Still, there are reasons to be hopeful. That same energy crisis has spurred an unprecedented demand for renewables, which are expected to boom, while in Brazil, a new president has sworn to protect the Amazon. Repressive regimes, meanwhile, will be nervously looking at Iran, where hardline clerics are locked in a struggle with a formidable pro-democracy uprising that threatens to overwhelm them next year.
Guardian correspondents across the globe have provided their take on what to watch out for in 2023:
A ceasefire in Ukraine?
Will the Ukraine war end in 2023? It’s impossible to imagine a handshake between Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin, suggesting that a negotiated peace between Ukraine and Russia after 10 months of hard fighting and tens of thousands of casualties on both sides is a long way off.
Ukraine is demanding the creation of a war crimes court for the Russian leadership and reparations from the Kremlin, as well as the restoration of its entire territory. None of this will be conceded by Moscow, which is never going to be faced with a 1945-style total defeat.
A more realistic endpoint would be a military ceasefire, in which two increasingly exhausted combatants see frontline positions harden around a line of control, in effect a repeat of what happened after the fighting of 2014, without the veneer of the previous Minsk peace agreements.
On the current frontlines, or something similar, that would obviously suit Russia, which seeks time to regenerate its shattered military and incorporate a territory roughly the size of Portugal. But it would clearly not suit Ukraine.
The incentive is on Ukraine to probe for weaknesses and try to attack, and its opportunity starts now, in the depths of winter, when the ground is frozen. Although Kyiv warns of Russian counterattacks, Moscow’s efforts are more likely to be limited, even diversionary, probably focused on the Donbas, where it has been on the attack, often ineffectively, since April.
The key point comes when it appears Ukraine’s offensive potential is exhausted. That will become clearer by the summer or autumn, and will at some point prompt a question for its western backers: how long should the west continue supplying military aid at current levels to Ukraine?
Dan Sabbagh, defence and security editor
Possible blackouts across Europe
Russia’s war on Ukraine, the ensuing continent-wide energy crisis and rampant inflation have largely dictated Europe’s fortunes this year, a state of affairs experts say is unlikely to improve – and may well worsen – in 2023.
Europe may be steadily weaning itself off its biggest source of energy – Russian oil and gas – but the cost has been immense, with soaring energy prices hitting households and businesses and governments forced to fund hundreds of billions in subsidies.
Blackouts and gas rationing remain possible across the continent this winter and despite many countries sourcing alternative supplies mainly of liquid natural gas (LNG), next winter could be worse, with analysts forecasting a worst-case gas shortfall approaching 10%.
Much will clearly depend on the severity of the weather – but “sensible” energy prices are not expected to return to Europe until 2025, meaning many economies will continue to suffer: Germany, the EU’s biggest, is expecting its economy to shrink by 0.5%.
Faced with such strong economic headwinds, the EU27’s efforts to hit Russia’s income without doing too much damage to their own are likely to get harder.
Its collective stance also looks set to be hampered further by Hungary’s continuing “blackmail diplomacy”.
Parliamentary elections will be held next year in Finland, Greece and Poland, which like Hungary remains embroiled in an ongoing rule-of-law dispute with Brussels that is likely to intensify next year as both countries seek the release of more EU funds.
Europe’s eyes will also be trained on Spain, where the rightwing PP is currently leading but not forecast to win an outright majority in December 2023 elections – which could mean it seeks parliamentary support from the far-right Vox.
Jon Henley, Europe correspondent, Paris
China finally confronts Covid
The so-called paramount leader, Xi Jinping, became even more powerful this year. In October he secured a third five-year term as leader, purging anyone not deemed utterly loyal from the senior party ranks.
With almost unchecked political power and with no known dissenting voices in his close circles, analysts are watching his moves on Taiwan in particular. Xi has long pledged to annex the island of 23 million people, despite their overwhelming opposition. This year, China’s People’s Liberation Army activities increased (the post-Nancy Pelosi drills gave a taste of what they can do), and official rhetoric escalated.
One possible tempering factor is Ukraine, where Russia’s similar invasion dreams did not go to plan. Xi is likely to be taking lessons. The invasion has also caused China headaches. Xi is a close ally of Putin’s, but wants global leadership, not isolation, so has sought to balance his support for Russia carefully.
Since October, he has set about strengthening foreign ties, meeting with dozens of heads of state. This includes leaders from western nations with which bilateral relations had plummeted amid sanctions over China’s human rights violations, weaponisation of trade, and claims of industrial espionage.
Xi is also contending with a struggling economy, damaged by a property sector collapse and the impact of his hardline zero-Covid policy on domestic business, production, and export sectors.
But the most immediate challenge for China in 2023 is Covid. The stringent zero-Covid policy that kept people safe for most of the pandemic was in 2022 overwhelmed by Omicron and became a chaotic beast of confusing and harmful lockdowns. They sparked the most significant protests seen in China since 1989, before the policy was surprisingly overturned by the government in December. The virus immediately began to rip through the country.
Health authorities have optimistically predicted a peak in infections by mid-January, and a return to pre-2020 normalcy by the middle of next year, but if the trajectories of other countries tell us anything, China is looking at a tough start to 2023. The health system is inadequately prepared and the government has not approved foreign-made vaccines. Too few elderly people have been vaccinated. Zero-Covid wreaked havoc on the economy, but how will authorities deal with successive waves of illness affecting businesses?
Helen Davidson, Taipei
Growing resistance in Iran
After the political earthquake of nationwide protests over women’s rights, Iran faces a defining year in which the regime will either wrest back control of a cowed population or see resistance grow into something that genuinely threatens the Islamic Republic’s 43-year rule.
Although many say something irreversible has been set in train since the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, which prompted the rallies, Iran has a long history of repressing dissent. But a movement that has no stated goals and no leadership, but deep cultural roots may be harder to control.
Much may depend on whether the economy continues to suffer, encouraging a broader impoverished group in society to abandon faith not just in the government, but in the entire system of clerical rule.
Ebrahim Raisi came to power as president in June 2021 unifying the levers of powers in the hands of conservatives in an unprecedented way. But it was a hollow triumph achieved with a record-low turnout. New evidence shows that the lower the turnout in a region, the more likely that region is to have joined the recent protests. Disillusionment now runs deep, with an elderly clerical establishment openly admitting they have lost the nation’s youth.
Raisi has bet all on confronting the west, on the basis of the west’s inevitable decline. So if the west “wins” in Ukraine, he may feel especially exposed after becoming the only major power to supply arms to Russia. Equally if anti-western ideology leads him to reject US terms for lifting economic sanctions in return for a renewal of the 2015 nuclear deal, ordinary Iranians may feel they are being sacrificed by a regime that no longer represents them.
The maximum danger point may come if the 83-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, dies, prompting an internal power battle that exposes the deep fissures inside the country.
Patrick Wintour, diplomatic editor
...
Read original full article
|
| |
|
|
Back to Featured Articles
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
