|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Thu, 18th Mar 2021 14:22:00 |
|
Is the world on the verge of a new commodities supercycle? |
Rising commodity prices have bank analysts and strategists asking if resurgent demand for raw materials and insufficient supply will create a new commodities supercycle. Price swings, of course, are as old as business itself. A commodities supercycle is different, though.
In the usual business cycle, demand pushes prices up, and supply increases to try to capture that windfall, sending prices down again. In a supercycle, supply is so inadequate to demand growth that prices rise for years, even a decade or more.
Before we examine the current possible supercycle, we should take a brief look back at the last two. In the 1970s, spiking oil prices created a boom that lasted into the early 1980s. In the early 2000s, China’s demand for copper, steel, aluminum, coal, and copper kept prices high through 2014, with a spike thanks to record high oil prices in 2008.
On this long timeline, we can just see the emergence of today’s possible supercycle.
Two components of this potential supercycle – oil and gas and metals – are relevant to decarbonization prospects. They’re also increasingly connected to each other.
First, oil and gas. One indicator in favor of a potential supercycle is the very low investment in oil and gas exploration. As prices fell from above $100 a barrel in 2014, capital expenditure fell, too. In real dollar terms, oil and gas capex is at about the same level as 15 years ago, when oil demand was 10% lower than at the end of 2020, and more than 15% lower than it was prior to the pandemic.
Read original full article
|
| |
|
|
Back to Featured Articles
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Energy News
|
|
| |
| |
