Dry bulk owners are watching customs stats out of Beijing closely to see where China is sourcing coal to replace banned Australian products – the choice will have an enormous ramifications for the overall tonne-mile picture of the sector.
Relations between Canberra and Beijing have soured in recent months after Australia called for an international probe into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic, leading the government of Xi Jinping to ban a range of Australian products including coal.
The start to 2021 has seen no sign of a thaw in China’s Australian coal stance.
“China is not backing down on this. Very little Australian thermal coal will go to China in 2021. It’s the chicken game,” commented Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO.
Sand said that for the sake of shipping, he was crossing his fingers that China turns to Colombia and Canada and not Mongolia and Russia for its coal needs.
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