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| Tue, 25th Aug 2020 14:21:00 |
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Solar-powered hydrogen under $2 per kg by 2030 |
Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have identified sites where hydrogen could be produced via PV electrolysis at prices ranging from $1.90/kg to $4.20/kg in the United States by the end of the decade.
They modeled an isolated PV-H2 system with no interactions with power infrastructure to sell excess power or buy electricity when the sun is not shining. “Of course, any real-world system may choose to be grid connected, but our analysis provides a limiting case,” they said. Off-grid PV powered electrolysis, however, is considered a viable option, as it would not be subject to exposure to intra-day and intra-year electricity price volatility.
The envisaged scenario considers a drop in costs for electrolysis from around $800/kW at present to $500/kW by the end of the decade. It involves an increase in electrolyzer efficiency, which is expected to grow from current estimates of 58% to 70% on a lower heating value (LHV) basis. It also includes a 33% reduction in capital costs for pressure vessel hydrogen storage, compared with 2020 costs, as well as lower capital costs for geological hydrogen storage.
The researchers said the availability of cheap geological storage makes it cost effective to use more of the PV electricity supply whenever it is available and use the produced hydrogen when it is more needed. “Consequently, system design with geological H2 storage leads to larger relative electrolyzer size, lower PV installed capacity, greater H2 storage capacity, and lower PV curtailment compared with design outcomes with more expensive pressure vessel H2 storage,” the scientists said.
“Under a strong climate policy, our analysis suggests that electrolytic production of H2 integrated with large solar PV arrays could, in areas of good solar resources, be cost competitive as an industrial feedstock by 2030,” the academics said.
According to a recent report by the International Council on Clean Transportation, the average price of green hydrogen in the United States would fall from $10.61/kg to $5.97/kg, while the minimum price would drop from $4.56/kg to $2.44/kg. The authors of the study claimed that more optimistic research on green hydrogen prices have only considered system costs associated with electrolyzer capex and the supply of power to operate electrolyzers.
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