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Thu, 20th Aug 2020 15:14:00 |
Japan’s struggle to drive down renewables costs |
U.S.-owned analyst Wood Mackenzie has predicted Japan is on track to overshoot its 2030 renewable energy target but will have to work harder to drive down the cost of solar and wind energy if it is also to achieve its clean hydrogen ambition.
WoodMac estimates the dampening effect of Covid-19 suppression measures on energy demand and the related oil price crash have driven down power supply costs in the nation 15% this year and yesterday predicted lower electricity demand forecasts and ever-cheaper solar panels and wind turbines will combine to attract $100 billion of renewables investment to Japan this decade.
That will mean the national target of generating 22-24% of electricity from renewables by 2030 will be surpassed as the country will hit 27% clean energy by that point.
The analyst stated a renewables sector which already features 45 GW of solar generation capacity, supplied 8% of the total 19% clean energy share of the generation mix last year from its solar and wind facilities. The technologies will supply 18% of the Japanese generation profile in ten years’ time, according to WoodMac, thanks in part to a further 30% reduction in generation costs on the back of falling hardware prices.
However, hitting clean hydrogen targets which include expanding the current 4,000 fuel-cell vehicle fleet on Japan’s roads to 200,000 by 2025 and 800,000 by 2030 will be tough, according to WoodMac research director Prakash Sharma. The analyst said generating green hydrogen is 2-4 times more expensive than creating the gas from fossil fuels, in a nation renowned for high electricity prices.
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