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| Thu, 2nd Jul 2020 14:06:00 |
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IEA report appears to acknowledge 2050 net zero may be beyond us |
Perhaps the most sobering aspect of the technology innovation report published today by the International Energy Agency (IEA) is how the advent of Covid-19 appears to have quietly pushed back the deadline for combating global heating.
Under the ‘sustainable development scenario’ outlined in today’s Special Report on Clean Energy Innovation, the IEA considers the technological advancement required to reach a net-zero-carbon world by 2070, rather than the 2050 s**t-or-bust deadline outlined in so many previous publications. Reaching net zero in 50 years’ time would give us a 66% chance of limiting the global average temperature rise to 1.8 degrees Celsius, is the chastening conclusion reached.
Enabling less-than-zero-carbon technology at scale beyond that point, however, could give us a chance of the dreamed-of 1.5 degrees Celsius ambition this century. And that is the point of the 185-page study, to consider the rate of clean energy technological innovation required to hit such goals. For example, under the sustainable development track, the IEA estimates almost 35% of the emissions savings required would have to come from technologies currently at the large prototype and demonstration stages. Around 40% would have to come from tech which has already been developed but is not yet commercially available.
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